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Causal relationship between foreign direct investments and macro-level polıtıcal stability in Turkey
(2018) Satrovic, Elma; Özbozkurt, Onur Başar
A number of empirical and theoretical studies as well as real life experiences provide supportive evidence to the fact that political instability has an ability to harm the inflow of the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). This study aims to explore the causal relationship between macro-level political stability and FDI while focusing on Turkey. The choice of Turkey as a subject of study is motivated by the fact that Turkish ruling party has ended the political and economic instability caused by the previous coalition governments. Despite of MTC (Multinational Terrorist Corporation)’s recent attacks and 15 July failed coup attempt which was completely different from the previous similar attempts, since it was a bloody-terrorist coup attempt targeting Turkish stability, Turkey continued to stand strong in the sense of political and economic conditions thanks to the political stability and national will. Political risk is studied since it has not received much attention in up-to-date studies treating the case of Turkey. For this purpose, the causal relationship between FDI and political stability is estimated using several econometric methods including Johansen cointegration test, the bounds testing (ARDL) approach, ECM-ARDL model as well as Granger causality test. Time series data are collected over the 15 years period ranging from 2002 to 2016. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies identified yet which give empirical evidence on the causal relationships between political stability and FDI inflow in Turkey. Our study aims to fill in this gap in literature and may be useful for the foreign investors and key decision makers. The results confirm a bidirectional long-run and short-run positive causal relationship between political stability, absence of violence and terrorism and FDI.
Causality relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism
(2019) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
This paper applies panel data regression model to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism in 113 countries during the period 1995-2015. Besides this, the paper attempts to research the potential causal relationship and cointegration between tourism industry and FDI while controlling for indicators such as consumption, trade openness and human capital. The obtained results indicate a significant positive impact of tourism on FDI. Moreover, three control variables are reported to be a significant determinant of foreign direct investments. The unidirectional causal relationship running from tourism to FDI is reported, implying that tourism allows these countries to expand their FDI. Consumption, trade openness and human capital are also reported to have a unidirectional causal relationship with FDI. Westerlund ECM panel cointegration test indicates mixed results on the cointegration between variables. Taking into account the obtained results, government can consider this relationship as an important tool for policy implication to achieve sustainable growth of the economy as well.
Does research and development expenditure impact high-technology export in turkey: evidence from ARDL model
(2018) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
The relationship between research and development expenditure and high-technology export in Turkey has not been explored quite extensively in previous studies. Therefore, there is a need to present official statistics on these economic terms of interest in order to show great potential in terms of both, research and development expenditure and high-technology export
Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Freedom and Tourism
(2019) Muslija, Adnan; Satrovic, Elma; Colakovic, Namik
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between economic freedom and the tourism industrywhile controlling for the potential heterogeneity. Countries that report high levels of economicfreedom index tend to have a more favorable business climate that increases the stability of the labormarket; monetary system and rule of law. As a consequence, it can attract more investments indifferent sectors including the tourism industry. Thereby, economic freedom is expected to cause thetourism industry. Herein, we have explored the link of interest by collecting the balanced panel datafor 87 countries over the period 2002-2015. The methodology includes the panel VAR model. Thefindings of this article suggest a unidirectional link running from economic freedom to the tourismindustry. Given the importance of the tourism industry, this paper suggests that governments shouldmake necessary changes to foster economic freedom since it is found to be an important factor toattract foreign tourists.
Economic and demographic determinants of the demand for life insurance: multivarıate analysis
(2018) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
The aim of this paper is to summarize a large number of economic and demographic determinants that are used to predict the demand for life insurance into a smaller number of component variables (components) and to determine which component has a stronger influence on demand for life insurance. Data are collected for 150 countries during the period 2005-2010. Final cross-country database is consisted of six-year average values on variables for selected countries. The methodology includes techniques of multivariate analysis: principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression. Results show that initial determinants of demand for life insurance can be summarized into two components: economic and demographic. Both components have a statistically significant positive influence on the demand for life insurance. On the basis of standardized regression coefficients it can be concluded that economic component is stronger determinant of demand for life insurance in comparison with demographic.
Economic output and high-technology export: panel causality analysis
(2018) Satrovic, Elma
High-technology export is expected to have a positive impact on economic output since it is supposed to have a positive impact on job growth. The relationship between export and economic growth, as well as the relationship between foreign direct investments, export and economic growth has been a popular issue of debate in up-to-date studies. However, empirical evidence treating the direct causality between high-technology export and economic output is lacking. Therefore, this article aims to fill in this gap by providing new evidence on the relationship between aforementioned economic terms. The relevance of high-technology export on economic output is explored in three panels. The first overall panel contains 70 economies; the second contains 32 developed economies, while the third panel contains 38 developing economies over the period 1995-2015. A Granger causality test that implements a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework within the panel setting is employed. Besides this, cointegration test is applied. In order to test for the sensitivity of the results and to avoid robust errors, we employ a panel ARDL model. The findings of ARDL model indicate that there is a short- as well as long-run relationship between high-technology export and economic output in the original model in overall sample of countries as well as for developed and developing. These results are confirmed in the extended model that controls for the impact of foreign direct investments. Cointegration test reports cointegrating relationship between high-technology export and economic output. Granger causality test indicates a bidirectional relationship between economic terms of interest.
Education of women and economic output in Turkey: Testing for structural breaks
(Peter Lang AG, 2019) Satrovic, Elma
This chapter aims to examine whether or not the education of women impacts the economic output in the case of Turkey. The data are collected for the period ranging between 1971 and 2015. The motive behind choosing Turkey is the fact that education is considered to be one of the basic human rights. Moreover, the motive lies in the provision of World Bank indicating that the female education has a great potential to transform their lives as well as the society as whole. However, despite the fact that the educational level of women and enrollment increases year-by-year in Turkey, women's role in Turkish economy is still far from satisfactory. Hence, this chapter tends to provide additional evidence on the matter taking into account the possible structural breaks in time-series data. Education is approximated using two variables: number of female in secondary and tertiary education, respectively, while economic output is approximated using GDP per capita (current US$). In terms of methodology, the empirical research of this chapter applies Gregory-Hansen cointegration test to explore the presence of structural breaks. Moreover, the chapter uses ARDL model to estimate the relationship between economic terms of interest in both, short and the long run. Gregory-Hansen cointegration test suggests structural break in the case when number of female in tertiary education is taken as a proxy of education. The second proxy variable supports this result. The results of ARDL model suggest a significant positive coefficient with both of the education proxy variables in the long run. However, short-run impact is reported to be negative. The findings of the stability test indicate that the structural breaks drastically influence the results. Hence, these should be taken into account since their ignorance may lead to wrong inference. The results suggest that Turkish government should do necessary changes to stimulate the education of women taking into account the fact that it can significantly contribute to the economic output in the long run. © Peter Lang AG 2019.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION, TRADE OPENNESS AND GROWTH NEXUS IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM VECM
(2019) Satrovic, Elma
Bu araştırma, Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi (ENE), ticari dışa açıklık (TI) ve ekonomik büyüme (GDP) arasındaki ilişkiyi 1970-2015 dönemi için incelemektedir. VECM uygulaması yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir hata döneminden çıkarılan GDP ve ENE ile uzun süreli bir nedensellik göstermektedir. Ancak, kısa dönemli katsayılar GDP ve TI denklemi açısından anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Ayrıca, bulgular ENE'deki yüzde değişimin kişi başına düşen GDP'de % 1.35'lik bir artışa yol açacağını göstermektedir. TI için, bu değişkendeki yüzde değişim, uzun vadede GDP'de % 0.13 düşüşe neden olacaktır. Dolayısıyla, kişi başına düşen GDP, enerji tüketimindeki değişime karşı esnek olmakla birlikte, TI'daki değişime karşı esnek değildir. Bu çalışma gelecekteki araştırmalar için politika sonuçlarını ve önerileri detaylı olarak özetlemektedir. Sonuç olarak teşhis testleri modelin istikrarını desteklemektedir.Anahtar kelimeler: ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi, ticari dışa açıklık, Türkiye, VECM
Energy consumption, trade openness and growth nexus in Turkey: evidence from vecm
(2019) Satrovic, Elma
This research investigates the relationship between energy consumption (ENE), trade openness (TI) and economic growth (GDP) in the case of Turkey in the period 1970-2015. VECM is employed. The results suggest a long-run causality which is inferred from the statistically significant error term with GDP and ENE. However, short-run coefficients are not found to be significant in the case of GDP and TI equation. Moreover, the findings suggest that a percentage change in ENE will result in a 1.35% increase in real GDP per capita. While for TI, a percentage change in this variable will result in 0.13% decrease in GDP in the long-run. Hence, real GDP per capita is elastic to the change in energy consumption but inelastic to the change in TI. This paper summarizes in detail the policy implications and the recommendations for future research. At last, the diagnostic tests advocate the stability of the model.
Energy consumption, urbanizatıon and economic growth relationship: an examınatıon on oecd countries
(2019) Satrovic, Elma; Dağ, Mehmet
This research tends to present fresh empirical evidence on the energy consumption-urbanization-growth nexus in the case of 34 OECD countries in the period 1996-2015 by applying Panel VAR analysis. Bivariate Panel VAR models suggest a two directional positive response of energy consumption (EC) to GDP (real GDP per capita). Moreover, EC is found to response positively to the UR (urban total population). The trivariate VAR model shows a significant positive impact of lagged GDP on the energy consumption. Additionally, lagged energy consumption is found to have a negative impact on urbanization. Urbanization is found to have a positive impact of the consumption of energy as well as on the economic growth. IRFs suggest a positive increasing short-term response of urbanization to the consumption of energy. The response of urbanization to the economic growth is positive and increases exponentially in the short-run. However, the response of urbanization to the energy consumption is positive but decreases significantly in the long-run. GDP is found to have a positive response to energy consumption but this response is decreasing in the observed period. The results of this paper suggest the great awareness of the urban citizens in OECD countries on their role in contributing to sustainable development by promoting sustainable energy. Hence, the policy makers need to do necessary changes to promote the renewable energy in urban areas in order to reduce CO2 emissions caused by energy based on fossil fuels.
Financial development and human capital in Turkey: ARDL approach
(2017) Satrovic, Elma
The impact of human capital on financial development has not been studied quite extensively in up-to-date studies. Hence, this article tries to fill in this gap by exploring the impact of human capital on financial development in Turkey. Human capital is expected to have a positive impact on financial development since it reduces information asymmetry. In addition, it is expected to increase demand for financial services and instruments. This article investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between financial development and human capital in Turkey using ARDL approach. Data are collected over 30-years period (1986-2015). In order to estimate the relationship between these economic terms, financial development is approximated using two proxy variables: broad money (% of GDP) and liquid liabilities (% of GDP). Two proxy variables of financial development are used in order to check for the sensitivity of the results. In addition, the impact of gross capital formation (% of GDP) is controlled. The obtained results indicate a significant positive impact of human capital on broad money (% of GDP) as well as on liquid liabilities (% of GDP) in both, short- and long-run. Control variable is not reported to be significant. Pesaran/Shin/Smith ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship.
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL IN TURKEY: ARDL APPROACH
(Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi, 2017) Satrovic, Elma
The impact of human capital on financial development has not been studied quite extensively in up-to-date studies. Hence, this article tries to fill in this gap by exploring the impact of human capital on financial development in Turkey. Human capital is expected to have a positive impact on financial development since it reduces information asymmetry. In addition, it is expected to increase demand for financial services and instruments. This article investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between financial development and human capital in Turkey using ARDL approach. Data are collected over 30-years period (1986-2015). In order to estimate the relationship between these economic terms, financial development is approximated using two proxy variables: broad money (% of GDP) and liquid liabilities (% of GDP). Two proxy variables of financial development are used in order to check for the sensitivity of the results. In addition, the impact of gross capital formation (% of GDP) is controlled. The obtained results indicate a significant positive impact of human capital on broad money (% of GDP) as well as on liquid liabilities (% of GDP) in both, short- and long-run. Control variable is not reported to be significant. Pesaran/Shin/Smith ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship.
Foreign direct investments and financial development: empirical evidence from developed and developing countries
(2018) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
This article aims to explore the relationship between foreign direct investments and the financial development in both, developed and developing countries. The relevance of financial development (FD) on foreign direct investments (FDI) is explored in three panels. The first overall panel contains 93 economies; the second contains 32 developed economies, while the third panel contains 61 developing economies over the period 2002-2015. A Granger causality test that implements a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework within the panel setting is employed. Besides this, panel regression model is estimated. In order to test the sensitivity of the results and avoid robust errors, we employ a panel ARDL model. The findings of ARDL model indicate that there is a long-run relationship between FD and FDI for both developed and developing countries as well as for the overall sample. A short-run relationship is reported for the overall sample of countries as well as for developed countries. The estimation of panel regression model indicates a significant positive impact of domestic credit to private sector (% GDP) on FDI in overall sample.Granger causality test indicates a bidirectional relationship between financial development and foreign direct investments in overall sample as well as in developing countries. A unidirectional relationship running from financial development toforeign direct investmentsis reported for developed countries
Fresh evidence on the investment-economic freedom-growth nexus in OECD member states
(Varazdın development & entrepreneurshıp agency, 2019) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan; DaSilva, AL; Tomic, D; Grilec, A
This paper aims to explore the nexus between investment, economic freedom and economic growth in the sample of 35 OECD member states in the time span 1996-2015. The empirical methodology relies on the panel VAR model. The findings of trivariate model suggest a significant negative response of GFC to EFI. Investment is however found to respond positively to the improvements in real GDP per capita. With regard to GDP it is found to respond negatively to the GFC as well as EFI. Lastly, economic freedom is found to respond negatively to GFC but positively to GDP. IRFs displaythe response of EFI to GDP to be negative only in the short-run reaching the positive value at the end of the period of interest. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of EFI to GFC. GDP is found to have a positive response to the EFI in both, short- and the long-term. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of GDP to GFC. GFC positively responds to and to GDP. This paper suggests a necessity for policy makers to support the economic freedom since it has a great potential to contribute to the both, investments and final the economic growth of the countries of interest.
FRESH EVIDENCE ON THE INVESTMENT-ECONOMIC FREEDOM-GROWTH NEXUS IN OECD MEMBER STATES
(Varazdin Development & Entrepreneurship Agency, 2019) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
This paper aims to explore the nexus between investment, economic freedom and economic growth in the sample of 35 OECD member states in the time span 1996-2015. The empirical methodology relies on the panel VAR model. The findings of trivariate model suggest a significant negative response of GFC to EFI. Investment is however found to respond positively to the improvements in real GDP per capita. With regard to GDP it is found to respond negatively to the GFC as well as EFI. Lastly, economic freedom is found to respond negatively to GFC but positively to GDP. IRFs displaythe response of EFI to GDP to be negative only in the short-run reaching the positive value at the end of the period of interest. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of EFI to GFC. GDP is found to have a positive response to the EFI in both, short- and the long-term. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of GDP to GFC. GFC positively responds to and to GDP. This paper suggests a necessity for policy makers to support the economic freedom since it has a great potential to contribute to the both, investments and final the economic growth of the countries of interest.
Fresh evidence on the investment-economic freedomgrowth nexus in oecd member states
(2019) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan
This paper aims to explore the nexus between investment, economic freedom and economic growth in the sample of 35 OECD member states in the time span 1996-2015. The empirical methodology relies on the panel VAR model. The findings of trivariate model suggest a significant negative response of GFC to EFI. Investment is however found to respond positively to the improvements in real GDP per capita. With regard to GDP it is found to respond negatively to the GFC as well as EFI. Lastly, economic freedom is found to respond negatively to GFC but positively to GDP. IRFs displaythe response of EFI to GDP to be negative only in the short-run reaching the positive value at the end of the period of interest. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of EFI to GFC. GDP is found to have a positive response to the EFI in both, short- and the long-term. Similar conclusion can be drawn for the response of GDP to GFC. GFC positively responds to and to GDP. This paper suggests a necessity for policy makers to support the economic freedom since it has a great potential to contribute to the both, investments and final the economic growth of the countries of interest.
Interdependence between Gross Capital Formation, Public Expenditure on R&D and Innovation in Turkey
(2020) Satrovic, Elma; Muslija, Adnan; Gligoric, Dragan; Dalwai, Tamanna; Abul, Sadeq J.
This paper outlines the roles of gross domestic spending on research and development (R&D) and gross capital formation in the innovation process and detects their contribution to this improvement. The analysis is conducted for Turkey for the period 1990-2017 using annual time-series data. Our findings suggest a bidirectional causal link between all variables of interest and prove that R&D can be a significant driving force for the Turkish innovation process. Most of the research and development activities in Turkey have been performed by universities. Herein, it is of key importance for the Turkish government to increase public expenditure, especially on education, since human capital plays an important role in building innovation capacity
LIFE INSURANCE DEMAND IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
(Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi, 2019) Satrovic, Elma
The focus of this research is to examine the impact of socio-demographic determinants and income on demand for life insurance in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Proxy variable of life insurance demand is the annual life insurance premium per capita in B&H. Socio-demographic determinants that are analyzed are: gender, marital status, educational level, age, employment status and number of family members. Questionnaire consists of 13 questions. Number of respondents after eliminating missing data is 120. Since the distribution of dependent variable deviates from normal, non-parametric tests are considered appropriate. Seven hypotheses are tested. Results indicate that annual life insurance premium per capita in B&H does not depend on gender and there are significant differences between married and single respondents in life insurance premium that they pay on annual basis. Results also show that the increase inincome increases the life insurance demand and the significant impact of educational level. As a concluding remark actuaries and life insurance companies should pay much attention to: marital status, educational level and income while creating life insurance policies. Hence, this research can serve as a useful insight for actuaries to easily charge life insurance products and to support life insurance development strategy in B&H.
Life insurance demand ın Bosnia and Herzegovina: statistical analysis
(2019) Satrovic, Elma
The focus of this research is to examine the impact of socio-demographic determinants and income on demand for life insurance in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Proxy variable of life insurance demand is the annual life insurance premium per capita in B&H. Socio-demographic determinants that are analyzed are: gender, marital status, educational level, age, employment status and number of family members. Questionnaire consists of 13 questions. Number of respondents after eliminating missing data is 120. Since the distribution of dependent variable deviates from normal, non-parametric tests are considered appropriate. Seven hypotheses are tested. Results indicate that annual life insurance premium per capita in B&H does not depend on gender and there are significant differences between married and single respondents in life insurance premium that they pay on annual basis. Results also show that the increase in income increases the life insurance demand and the significant impact of educational level. As a concluding remark actuaries and life insurance companies should pay much attention to: marital status, educational level and income while creating life insurance policies. Hence, this research can serve as a useful insight for actuaries to easily charge life insurance products and to support life insurance development strategy in B&H.
Macropolitical stability and absence of violence/terrorism and foreign direct investments: panel analysis
(2019) Satrovic, Elma; Özkurt, Onur Başar
The study investigates the significance of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism on foreign direct investment (FDI) in three panels. The first (overall) panel comprises 110 economies (both developed and developing); the second involves 35 developed economies, whereas the third panel includes 75 developing economies the years between 2002-2015. A Granger causality test, cointegration test and panel ARDL model are employed. The findings of ARDL model show that there is a long-run relationship between political stability and absence of violence/terrorism and FDI for the overall sample as well as for developed countries. In addition, Granger causality test indicates the bidirectional relationship between the economic terms of interest for the overall sample as well as for the sample of developed countries. Nevertheless, developing countries give mixed results. A long-run relationship between FDI and political stability and absence of violence/terrorism is reported whereas there is no evidence on the short-run relationship.

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