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    ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS
    (Inst Economic Forecasting, 2011) Kaplan, Muhittin; Ozturk, Ilhan; Kalyoncu, Huseyin
    This paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971-2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.
  • Küçük Resim
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    Energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey: Cointegration and causality analysis
    (2011) Kaplan, Muhittin; Öztürk, İlhan; Kalyoncu, Hüseyin
    This paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971-2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    The causal relatıonshıp between energy consumptıon and gdp ın turkey
    (MULTI-SCIENCE PUBL CO LTD, 2013) Öztürk, İlhan; Kaplan, Muhittin; Kalyoncu, Huseyin
    This paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960-2006 period for Turkey. Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine this issue. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is estimated and the Granger causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have shown that there is no short-run causality in both energy consumption and GDP models. The results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. Taken together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers.