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Öğe Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries(2009) Kalyoncu, Hüseyin; Öztürk, İlhan; Artan, Seyfettin; Kalyoncu , KahramanThe aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and shortrun effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only.Öğe Energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey: Cointegration and causality analysis(2011) Kaplan, Muhittin; Öztürk, İlhan; Kalyoncu, HüseyinThis paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971-2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.Öğe Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2010) Öztürk, İlhan; Aslan, Alper; Kalyoncu, HüseyinThis paper uses the panel data of energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (GDP) for 51 countries from 1971 to 2005. These countries are divided into three groups: low income group, lower middle income group and upper middle income group countries. Firstly, a relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated by employing Pedroni (1999) panel cointegration method. Secondly, panel causality test is applied to investigate the way of causality between the energy consumption and economic growth. Finally, we test whether there is a strong or weak relationship between these variables by using Pedroni (2001) method. The empirical results of this study are as follows: i) Energy consumption and GDP are cointegrated for all three income group countries. ii) The panel causality test results reveal that there is long-run Granger causality running from GDP to EC for low income countries and there is bidirectional causality between EC and GDP for middle income countries. iii) The estimated cointegration factor, 13, is not close to 1. In other words, no strong relation is found between energy consumption and economic growth for all income groups considered in this study. The findings of this study have important policy implications and it shows that this issue still deserves further attention in future research.Öğe Exchange rate volatility and trade: An empirical investigation from cross-country comparison(WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2009) Öztürk, İlhan; Kalyoncu, HüseyinThis paper investigates empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of six countries over the quarterly period of 1980-2005. The impact of a volatility term on trade is examined by using an Engle-Granger residual-based cointegrating technique. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect on trade for South Korea, Pakistan, Poland and South Africa and a positive effect for Turkey and Hungary in the long run.Öğe Is per capita real GDP stationary in the OECD countries? Evidence from a panel unit root test(2007) Öztürk, İlhan; Kalyoncu, HüseyinThis paper examines the stationarity of real GDP per capita for 27 OECD countries during the period 1950 to 2004. Using ADF unit root test on single time series, it is found that real GDP per capita series of most OECD countries have unit root. This outcome, however, might be due to the generally low power of this test. The aim of this paper is to reconsider this issue by exploiting the extra information provided by the combination of the time-series and cross-sectional data and the subsequent power advantages of panel data unit root tests. We apply the test advocated by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997). The results overwhelmingly indicate that real GDP per capita series among OECD countries are nonstationary.Öğe ORTA ASYA ENERJİ KAYNAKLARI VE ENERJİ BAĞLAMINDA ABD'NİN ORTA ASYA POLİTİKASI(Çağ Üniversitesi, 2010) Kalyoncu, Hüseyin; Amanov, ShatlykAmerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin enerji politikası, her şeyden önce küresel bir boyuta sahiptir; enerji arzının artırılması ve kaynakların çeşitlendirilmesi bu politikanın temelini oluşturmaktadır. Farklı kaynaklardan dünya enerji piyasasına giriş yapan her ilave enerji (doğal gaz ve petrol) kaynağı, aynı zamanda ABD’nin kendi enerji güvenliğini de artırmaktadır. Bundan dolayı hem Amerikan hem de dünya enerji talebine cevap verebilecek hertürlü kaynak (özellikle Orta Asya bölgesindeki rezervler) çeşitliliğinin ve enerji türünün sağlanması, ABD’nin stratejik hedefi haline getirilmiştir. Günümüzde ABD, kendi enerji güvenliğini ve küresel ekonomik sistemin sürekliliğini kazanmak amacıyla, dünyanın en önemli petrol ve doğal gaz üreticisi ülkeleriyle yakın işbirliği içerisindedir. Bu ülkeler grubu içerisinde Orta Asya’nın yeni bağımsız cumhuriyetleri de yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada Orta Asya enerji kaynakları incelenecek ve ABD’nin enerji bağlamında Orta Asya politikası ele alınacaktır
