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Öğe Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between industrial energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan(2019) Öztürk, İlhan; Abbas, Ali Chandio; Rauf, Abdul; Jiang, Yuansheng; Ahmad, FayyazEnergy consumption is a crucial factor to promote industrial sector contribution in an economy for its economic progression. Indeed, Pakistan is an emerging country, but recently adjoining with a very severe deficit of electricity sources. Hence, the industry value added growth leading to economic progression is also fronting inevitable challenges to promote the industry growth. The main objective of the study is to investigate the linkages between industrial sector oil, gas and electricity consumption, and renewable energy consumption with economic development in Pakistan. The findings display evidence of cointegration and a long-run relationship between the consumption of industrial energy and economic growth in Pakistan. The results showed that industrial electricity consumption and industrial gas consumption have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth both in the long run and the short run in Pakistan. Industrial oil consumption negatively impacts economic growth in the long run, but positively and statistically significantly impacts economic growth in the short run in Pakistan. Moreover, indications through the vector error correction model (VECM) model confirmed bi-directional relationships of industrial sector oil consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Furthermore, the uni-directional nexus instituted between economic growth to industrial electricity consumption, industrial gas consumption to industrial electricity consumption, and industrial oil consumption to industrial electricity consumption. The findings uncovered solid interconnections among the studied variables and suggested that the Pakistani government should build a robust policy to diminish the oil, gas, and fossil fuels consumption for electricity production, as a replacement to depend on solar, hydro, wind, and biomass energy sources in Pakistan. Consequently, the government should promote more gas concentrated projects, as these will alleviate the contests of gas dearth and provide it to the industry at cheap prices with ease.Öğe Do Tourism Development, Energy Consumption and Transportation Demolish Sustainable Environments? Evidence from Chinese Provinces(MDPI, 2021) Rauf, Abdul; Ozturk, Ilhan; Ahmad, Fayyaz; Shehzad, Khurram; Chandiao, Abbas Ali; Irfan, Muhammad; Abid, SairaChina is performing a dominant role in the world's economic growth, but it has mainly been the commencement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that has significantly increased its importance around the world. Recently, the emergence of the tourism industry has been considered as an alternative for sustainable economic and ecological development, which is ironic. Although China is promoting tourism in various regions under The New Normal phase, it needs to proactively address the challenges of dismantling, for the environment. The fundamental objective of the current study is to determine the long-term affiliation between tourism development, economic progress, transportation, energy consumption, value added hotel catering services, and environmental degradation (CO2) for a panel of thirty (30) provinces of China over the period of 1995-2017. Primarily, we applied the CD test for investigating cross dependence; subsequently, conventional and CD based panel unit root tests (CIPS) were carried out to deal with the puzzle of the stationarity of the panel series. The results of the dynamics panel, DOLS, FMOLS, and PMG, indicated that transportation, energy consumption, and value added hotel and catering services have a strong positive association with carbon emission, but tourism development has mixed links with ecological degradation. Additionally, the causative based test revealed the bidirectional association of tourism development, transportation, economic progress, and energy consumption with environmental quality. The retrieved estimates conferred a few guidelines, concerning the presence of BRI projects, for the Chinese administration at the provincial and national level: initiating the renewable based energy projects and possibly wishing to decrease the use of fossil fuel based energy in the industry, transportation, and hotels and catering sectors. Furthermore, the prevalence of green investment in provinces may motivate economic progress and tourism development, without worsening the atmosphere.Öğe Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey(2020) Öztürk, İlhan; Chandio, Abbas Ali; Akram, Waqar; Ahmad, Fayyaz; Mirani, Aamir AliThis research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long runÖğe Impact of FDI Inflows on poverty reduction in the ASEAN and SAARC economies(MDPI, 2019) Ahmad, Fayyaz; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Su, Lijuan; Öztürk, İlhan; Rauf, Abdul; Ali, ShahidThe aim of this paper is to reinvestigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on welfare or poverty reduction in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) economies. We used FDI net inflows per capita and the United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index (HDI) as the principal variables ranging from 1990 to 2014. Our analyses confirm the positive and strongly significant relationship between FDI net inflows and poverty reduction in Asia. However, it indicates significant differences between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Generally, we find that FDI has a greater impact on welfare in SAARC countries than in ASEAN countries. Our results hold true for both HDI and real gross domestic product (GDP), and are shown to be robust using both panel and pool model specifications.Öğe Looking for asymmetries and nonlinearities: The nexus between renewable energy and environmental degradation in the Northwestern provinces of China(2020) Öztürk, İlhan; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Ahmad, Fayyaz; Su, Lijuan; Rauf, AbdulRecent industrial surge in the Northwestern provinces of China resulted in substantial energy consumption and adverse effect on the environment. Despite being less established, the Northwestern region of China has strategic importance and the use of renewable energy can potentially promote sustainable development in this region. Considering this aspect, this study aims to investigate the impact of renewable energy on environmental pollution in five Northwestern provinces of China during 1995 e2014. This study uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach with the structural break unit root and other specifications tests. The results indicate that renewable energy positive shock has an adverse impact on the CO2 emissions of the Northwestern provinces of China. The effect of renewable energy use varies in five provinces, i.e. it is more significant in Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang than in Ningxia and Shaanxi. However, reduction in renewable energy consumption leads to higher level of CO2 emissions and this effect is more significant for Ningxia and Shaanxi in the long run. Furthermore, the positive shockwaves in nonrenewable energy, GDP and transportation are associated with environmental pollution in these provinces both in short run and long run. Nevertheless, the impact of negative shockwaves in nonrenewable energy consumption on environmental pollution is more significant than economic development for all provinces. Our findings suggest that: cutting down fossil fuels use can substantially improve environmental quality in these provinces; depending on the provincial geographies and government strategies, the intensity of positive impact of renewable energy towards CO2 emissions reduction differs among five provinces. Likewise, renewable energy development has abundant potential to increase the economic and ecological sustainability in the Northwestern provinces of China in the long run.Öğe Modeling the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal production: evidence from Indian agricultural sector(Springer Heidelberg, 2022) Chandio, Abbas Ali; Jiang, Yuansheg; Amin, Asad; Akram, Waqar; Ozturk, Ilhan; Sinha, Avik; Ahmad, FayyazThe underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965-2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO2 emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects them. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise Granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatic factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.Öğe Revisiting the nexus between exchange rate, exports and economic growth: further evidence from Asia(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Zhu, Wei; Ahmad, Fayyaz; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Ozturk, Ilhan; Rehman, AbdulThe economic growth of developing countries has been associated with their exports, and the existing research suggests that exchange rates significantly influence the exports. This study used panel data to investigate the potential nexus of gross domestic product (GDP), exports and exchange rates in Asian countries over the period of 1981-2016. The results portray that nexus between exchange rate and exports holds true for Export-led Growth (ELG) and Growth-led Exports (GLE) hypotheses. This study used the Wald test under Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with all necessary specifications tests to identify the possible nexus of variables, and applied the fixed effects model along with control variables. The results imply that an undervalued currency enhances exports and has a significant impact on economic growth. Additionally, the results of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model with financial crises dummy suggested that the estimations are robust. Keeping in view the aforementioned findings, a timely and balanced policy can play a pivotal role in improving the long term nexus of exchange rates, exports and economic growth.Öğe The case of China's fiscal decentralization and eco-efficiency: is it worthwhile or just a bootless errand? (vol 26, pg 89, 2021)(Elsevier, 2022) Ahmad, Fayyaz; Xu, Hui; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Ozturk, Ilhan; Chandio, Abbas Ali; Wang, Yanping; Zhang, Dawei[Abstract Not Available]Öğe The case of China’s fiscal decentralization and eco-efficiency: is it worthwhile or just a bootless errand?(2020) Öztürk, İlhan; Ahmad, Fayyaz; Xua, Hui; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Chandio, Abbas Ali; Wang, Yanping; Zhang, DaweiDuring the last two decades, China has made commendable efforts to control environmental pollution and promote sustainable development. Empowering local governments regarding their budgets is an example of such efforts. Although China’s fiscal decentralization (FD) stimulated inter-regional economic competition, environmental pollution also came along as a byproduct. Considering these dynamics, this study aims to investigate the association between the FD and the eco-efficiency of 99 prefecture-level cities from China’s top ten urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2016. We investigated the issue of crosssectional dependence among the panel variables and, to check the stationary properties of our data, applied the second generation Pesaran and Cross-sectional augmented Im, Pesaran, and Shin unit root tests. Subsequently, to check the possible impact of FD on eco-efficiency, we applied both Difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and System GMM with the help of several control variables. The results indicated that FD improved eco-efficiency for the overall sample cities; however, this impact varied among different regions of China. The regional analyses confirmed that FD improved eco-efficiency in the eastern and central parts of China, whereas the relationship was negative in the western region. Our results also confirm that irrational use of resources for economic development reduces eco-efficiency. However, sustainable economic development has a positive and significant impact on eco-efficiency. The negative impact of foreign direct investment and secondary industry was also more significant than was that of population density. Our study presents important policy implications for both central and local governments in China, which include an increase in decentralization and eco-efficiency practices and control over foreign investments, lead towards environmental pollutionÖğe Tourism and Environmental Pollution: Evidence from the One Belt One Road Provinces of Western China(MDPI, 2018) Ahmad, Fayyaz; Draz, Muhammad Umar; Su, Lijuan; Öztürk, İlhan; Rauf, AbdulThe rapid economic development of China and the industrial shift from its eastern to western provinces have resulted in significant negative impacts on the environment. Recently, tourism has emerged as an alternative for economic and environmental development, but it is a double-edged sword. Without the required measures to protect environment, the opportunity cost of tourism is environmental degradation. The western part of China holds a significant advantage for the development of travel and tourism (T&T), due to One Belt One Road (OBOR), unique ancient culture and spectacular variety of natural scenic spots. This region is among the less explored and less developed, but important, parts of China. Taking this point into consideration, this paper aims to examine the impact of tourism on the environmental pollution of five provinces located in the heart of OBOR over the period of 1991-2016. To explore this link, we used the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach and Gregory-Hansen test for robustness check. We applied the Zivot-Andrews unit root test to deal with structural breaks in data. Our results confirm a negative impact of tourism on environment for Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Shanxi. However, tourism improves the environmental quality of Xinjiang. The negative impact of energy consumption and GDP growth is significant than tourism. Our findings suggest that the relationship varies for different provinces in the same region depending on the specific provincial features and government policies. Furthermore, tourism development has great potential to improve the economic and environmental sustainability in these provinces.Öğe Towards long-term sustainable environment: does agriculture and renewable energy consumption matter?(Springer Heidelberg, 2021) Chandio, Abbas Ali; Akram, Waqar; Ozturk, Ilhan; Ahmad, Munir; Ahmad, FayyazThis work analyzed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) effects of renewable and non-renewable energy (RE and NRE) usage, economic development (ED), agricultural value-added (AVA), and forestry area (FA) on the environmental quality (EQ) in China spanning from 1990 to 2015. The autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bounds testing method and the Johansen cointegration approach are applied to produce empirical estimates. The empirical results of the ARDL and the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimators established that renewable energy usage and forest area reduce CO2 emissions and improve the environmental quality, while non-renewable energy consumption, economic development, and agricultural output increase the level of CO2 emissions in China. The robustness of outcomes is checked through the Granger causality test, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition method (VDM) suggesting that fossil fuel usage in the agriculture production process is mainly accountable for China's CO2 emissions. These findings have inherent policy implications for the central and local Chinese government, which are exhibited in the Conclusions section.
