Yazar "Acaravci, Ali" seçeneğine göre listele
Listeleniyor 1 - 20 / 30
Sayfa Başına Sonuç
Sıralama seçenekleri
Öğe Aggregate import demand function for slovakia: Evidence from ardl bounds testing approach(National Academy of Management, 2011) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper estimates the aggregate import demand function for Slovakia, using recent cointegration approach, the ARDL bounds testing approach, for the quarterly period of 1993:1-2003:3. The results show that real import, relative price and real GDP are cointegrated. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests indicate that there exists a stable import demand function. The results imply that price stabilization policies may not be used as instruments to maintain a favorable trade balance for Slovakia. Therefore, for a sustainable trade balance, the development of local industries should be encouraged in order to have less import.Öğe Aggregate ımport demand functıon for slovakıa: evıdence from ardl bounds testıng approach(NATIONAL ACAD MANAGEMENT, 2011) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper estimates the aggregate import demand function for Slovakia, using recent cointegration approach, the ARDL bounds testing approach, for the quarterly period of 1993:1-2003:3. The results show that real import, relative price and real GDP are cointegrated. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests indicate that there exists a stable import demand function. The results imply that price stabilization policies may not be used as instruments to maintain a favorable trade balance for Slovakia. Therefore, for a sustainable trade balance, the development of local industries should be encouraged in order to have less import.Öğe An application of thirlwall's law to the South African economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach(ACADEMIC JOURNALS, 2010) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper applies Thirlwall's basic balance-of-payments constraint growth model to South Africa economic growth for the period of 1984:1 - 2006:1 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income, and the equilibrium growth rates coincide with actual growth rates. Our empirical results also support the Thirlwall's hypothesis which states that balance of payments position of the South African economy is the main constraint on its economic growth. As a policy implication, a successful economic growth policy will permit South Africa to have a rapid growth in demand and supply without suffering deterioration in its balance of payments.Öğe Analiza parit??ii puterii de cump?rare din ??rile în tranzi?ie: Probe evidentiate în bresele structurale(Editura ASE Bucuresti, 2010) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, Ilhan[No abstract available]Öğe Balance of payments constrained growth in Turkey: Evidence from ardl bound testing approach(2009) Acaravci, Ali; Öztürk, İlhanThe aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall's Law in Turkey during the period of 1980:1-2006:4 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income. The estimates of the long run elasticities from this function are used to compute the equilibrium growth rate. The difference between the equilibrium and actual economic growth rates are small Nevertheless, results from regressions of equilibrium growth rates indicate that the Thirlwall's law does not hold for Turkey.Öğe BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINED GROWTH IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH(Vilnius Univ, 2009) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThe aim of this study is to empirically test lite validity of Thirlwall's Law in Turkey during the period of 1980:1-2006:4 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income. The estimates of the long run elasticities from this function are used to compute the equilibrium growth rate. The difference between the equilibrium and actual economic growth rates are small. Nevertheless, results from regressions of equilibrium growth rates indicate that the Thirlwall's law does not hold for Turkey.Öğe Causality between natural gas prices and stock market returns in Turkey(Sprınger Internatıonal Publıshıng Ag, 2013) Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz; Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock returns in Turkey by using Johansen and Juselius, and bounds testing approach of cointegration tests using quarterly data from 1995: 1 to 2009 : 3. Empirical findings suggest that there is no a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, real GDP, real exchange rates and stock returns. On the other hand, Toda - Yamamoto causality approach results indicate that a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from stock prices to real GDP and natural gas prices and a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from real GDP to real exchange rates seem to exist in Turkey.Öğe CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2010) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968-2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is -0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey.Öğe Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus: A multivariate analysis for Turkey(Editura ASE Bucuresti, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanThis study examines the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey for 1968-2006 period by using Granger causality models augmented with a lagged error-correction term. The bounds F-test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between employment ratio, electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The overall results from the three error-correction based Granger causality models show that there is an evidence of unidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causalities running from the electricity consumption per capita to real GDP per capita. But, there is no causal evidence from the real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita. In other words, "Growth hypothesis" is confirmed in Turkey. This suggests that electricity consumption plays an important role in economic growth. © 2011, Editura Cefin.Öğe Electricity consumption and real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach for 11 MENA countries(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2011) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in the selected 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and vector error-correction models. It employs annual data covering the period from 1971 to 2006. The unit root tests results indicate that some of the variables for Algeria, Jordan, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates do not satisfy the underlying assumptions of the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration methodology before proceeding to the estimation stage. Thus, we drop these countries from the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration and causality analysis. The cointegration test results show that there is no cointegration between the electricity consumption and the economic growth in three of the seven countries (Iran, Morocco and Syria). Thus, causal relationship cannot be estimated for these countries. However, the cointegration and causal relationship is found in four countries (Egypt, Israel, Oman and Saudi Arabia). The overall results indicate that there is no relationship between the electricity consumption and the economic growth in most of the MENA countries. Further evidence indicates that policies for energy conservation can have a little or no impact on economic growth in most of the MENA countries.Öğe Electricity consumption-growth nexus: Evidence from panel data for transition countries(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2010) Acaravci, Ali; Öztürk, İlhanThis paper investigates the long-run relationship and causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in 15 Transition countries (Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic and Ukraine) by using the Pedroni panel cointegration method for the 1990-2006 period. Results suggest that the Pedroni panel cointegration tests do not confirm a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. Moreover, since no cointegration was found, error-correction mechanisms plus causality tests cannot be run for further steps in the long-term to investigate the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Overall, it can be said that the electricity consumption related policies have no effect or relation on the level of real output in the long run for these countries. As a conclusion, the literature has conflicting results and there is no consensus either on the existence or the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Thus, the findings of this study have important policy implications and it shows that this issue still deserves further attention in future research.Öğe Electrıcıty consumptıon and economıc growth nexus: a multıvarıate analysıs for turkey(Edıtura Ase, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Öztürk, İlhanThis study examines the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey for 1968-2006 period by using Granger causality models augmented with a lagged error-correction term. The bounds F-test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between employment ratio, electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The overall results from the three error-correction based Granger causality models show that there is an evidence of unidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causalities running from the electricity consumption per capita to real GDP per capita. But, there is no causal evidence from the real GDP per capita to electricity consumption per capita. In other words, "Growth hypothesis" is confirmed in Turkey. This suggests that electricity consumption plays an important role in economic growth.Öğe Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, economic growth, and foreign trade relationship in Cyprus and Malta(TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC, 2016) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the long-run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio in Cyprus and Malta by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and error-correction-based Granger causality models. Empirical results over the period 1980-2006 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level only in Malta. Thus, Granger causality models are estimated only for Malta. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that the causality runs from carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio to economic growth but not vice versa in Malta. The overall results indicate that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Malta.Öğe Exchange rate volatility and exports in Turkey(2009) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliThis paper examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on Turkish exports in the context of the moving average standard deviation (MASD) model over the monthly period of 1995-2005. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect upon export demand in both the short-run and the long run.Öğe Fdı, trade and growth ın Turkey: evıdence from ardl bounds testıng approach(WROCLAW UNIV ECONOMICS, 2010) Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliDespite the increasing empirical literature on foreign direct investment (FDI)-led growth, export-led growth (ELG) and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses, this study investigates the validity of the FDI-export-growth and FDI-import-growth hypotheses in Turkey by using quarterly time series data for 1998:1-2009:1 period. To examine these linkages, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In the first step, we define the order of integration in series and explore the long run relationships among the variables by using four unit root tests and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test, respectively. In the second step, we test causal relationships by using the error-correction based causality models. The ARDL bounds test reveals that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, import (IM) and real gross domestic product (GDP), but no evidence of a long-run relationship between the FDI, export (EX) and GDP in Turkey. According to the causality test results for GDP-IM-FDI equation, there is evidence of two-way (bidirectional) causality between GDP and IM, evidence of one-way (unidirectional) causality from FDI to GDP and evidence of one-way Granger causality from FDI to IM. The existence of unidirectional causal links suggests that FDI strategies should be designed to promote economic growth.Öğe Financial development and economic growth: literature survey and emiırical evidence from sub-saharan african countries(UNIV PRETORIA, 2009) Acaravci, Songul Kakilli; Öztürk, İlhan; Acaravci, AliIn this paper we review the literature on the finance-growth nexus and investigate the causality between financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1975-2005. Using panel co-integration and panel GMM estimation for causality, the results of the panel co-integration analysis provide evidence of no long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The empirical findings in the paper show a bi-directional causal relationship between the growth of real GDP per capita and the domestic credit provided by the banking sector for the panels of 24 sub-Saharan African countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems and vice versa.Öğe FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: LITERATURE SURVEY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES(Aosis, 2009) Acaravci, Songul Kakilli; Ozturk, Ilhan; Acaravci, AliIn this paper we review the literature on the finance-growth nexus and investigate the causality between financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1975-2005. Using panel co-integration and panel GMM estimation for causality, the results of the panel co-integration analysis provide evidence of no long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The empirical findings in the paper show a bi-directional causal relationship between the growth of real GDP per capita and the domestic credit provided by the banking sector for the panels of 24 sub-Saharan African countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems and vice versa.Öğe Foreign direct investment, export and economic growth: Empirical evidence from new EU countries(2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanWhether foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial to host country growth or not is a question debated since a long time. This paper provides a survey of the literature on FDI, export and growth, and empirically investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, export and FDI for the ten transition European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). The ARDL bounds testing approach is used to investigate the existance of long-run relationship between FDI, export and economic growth for these countries. After detection of cointegratin relationship, the error-correction based Granger causality test is employed to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables by using quarterly data from 1994 to 2008. These causality results reveal that there is causal relationship between FDI, export and economic growth in four out of ten countries considered.Öğe FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NEW EU COUNTRIES(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Ozturk, IlhanWhether foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial to host country growth or not is a question debated since a long time. This paper provides a survey of the literature on FDI, export and growth, and empirically investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, export and FDI for the ten transition European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). The ARDL bounds testing approach is used to investigate the existance of long-run relationship between FDI, export and economic growth for these countries. After detection of cointegratin relationship, the error-correction based Granger causality test is employed to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables by using quarterly data from 1994 to 2008. These causality results reveal that there is causal relationship between FDI, export and economic growth in four out of ten countries considered.Öğe Foreign direct investment, export and economıc growth: empirical evidence from new eu countries(INST ECONOMIC FORECASTING, 2012) Acaravci, Ali; Öztürk, İlhanWhether foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial to host country growth or not is a question debated since a long time. This paper provides a survey of the literature on FDI, export and growth, and empirically investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, export and FDI for the ten transition European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). The ARDL bounds testing approach is used to investigate the existance of long-run relationship between FDI, export and economic growth for these countries. After detection of cointegratin relationship, the error-correction based Granger causality test is employed to examine the both long-run and short-run causality issues between the variables by using quarterly data from 1994 to 2008. These causality results reveal that there is causal relationship between FDI, export and economic growth in four out of ten countries considered.
