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Öğe Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries(UNIV RIJEKA, FAC ECOMOMICS, 2009) Kalyoncu, Huseyin; Öztürk, İlhan; Artan, Seyfettin; Kalyoncu, KahramanThe aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and short-run effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only.Öğe ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS(Inst Economic Forecasting, 2011) Kaplan, Muhittin; Ozturk, Ilhan; Kalyoncu, HuseyinThis paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971-2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.Öğe IS PER CAPITA REAL GDP STATIONARY IN THE OECD COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL UNIT ROOT TEST(Hrvatsko Drustvo Ekonomista, 2007) Ozturk, Ilhan; Kalyoncu, HuseyinThis paper examines the stationarity of real GDP per capita for 27 OECD countries during the period 1950 to 2004. Using ADF unit root test on single time series, it is found that real GDP per capita series of most OECD countries have unit root. This outcome, however, might be due to the generally low power of this test. The aim of this paper is to reconsider this issue by exploiting the extra information provided by the combination of the time-series and cross-sectional data and the subsequent power advantages of panel data unit root tests. We apply the test advocated by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997). The results overwhelmingly indicate that real GDP per capita series among OECD countries are nonstationary.Öğe Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francıs Ltd., 2010) Kalyoncu, Huseyin; Öztürk, İlhanThis article examines sustainability of current account for Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Using the usual intertemporal borrowing constraint, we have tested for a long-run relationship between exports and imports plus net transfer payments and net interest payments. In our empirical analysis of the sustainability of current account, cointegration approaches have been used. Empirical results suggest that in the case of Peru, there exists a unique long run or equilibrium relationship among real exports and imports. In the case of Colombia, Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, cointegration results suggest that these countries' current accounts are not sustainable in the long run.Öğe The causal relatıonshıp between energy consumptıon and gdp ın turkey(MULTI-SCIENCE PUBL CO LTD, 2013) Öztürk, İlhan; Kaplan, Muhittin; Kalyoncu, HuseyinThis paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960-2006 period for Turkey. Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine this issue. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is estimated and the Granger causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have shown that there is no short-run causality in both energy consumption and GDP models. The results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. Taken together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers.
