An application of thirlwall's law to the South African economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach

Abstract

This paper applies Thirlwall's basic balance-of-payments constraint growth model to South Africa economic growth for the period of 1984:1 - 2006:1 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach. The empirical results reveal that import is cointegrated with relative price and income, and the equilibrium growth rates coincide with actual growth rates. Our empirical results also support the Thirlwall's hypothesis which states that balance of payments position of the South African economy is the main constraint on its economic growth. As a policy implication, a successful economic growth policy will permit South Africa to have a rapid growth in demand and supply without suffering deterioration in its balance of payments.