Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: Is the 10th Malaysian plan attainable within the limits of its resource?

Abstract

The 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) is a strategic plan focused on attaining a level of economic growth that will enable the country to attain a developed nation status by 2020. As a result of this ambitious plan, this paper aims to investigate empirically if the nexus between natural gas consumption, exports, capital and labour could provide a clue to the possibilities of reaching this target. The study applied time series data from 1971 to 2012 and used dual structural break tests. To ensure robust result, the Bayer-Hanck cointegration, Johansen cointegration and the ARDL bounds tests were applied. The findings of the study reveal that economic growth does not Granger cause natural gas consumption in Malaysia. However, the results show that capital and export contribute 29.18% and 41.46% to the country's GDP after 20.04% and 42.29% of natural gas consumption respectively. Also it suggests that natural gas consumption has an indirect effect to the Malaysian economic growth wherewithal. Labour was on the other hand, found to have a minimal contribution to GDP. The study proposes the efficient exploitation of natural gas reserves of the country, a concerted effort to develop the labour force and ensure a realistic time for the plan among others.