Is tourism a catalyst of growth in Egypt? evidence from granger non-causality and the generalised variance decomposition analysis

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the role of tourism in economic growth in Egypt over the period of 1982-2011. Our empirical results reveal that economic growth, tourism, and capital stock are cointegrated. The results of TYDL causality tests indicate that tourism and economic growth is bi-directional causality. Furthermore, we find that that tourism explained most of the variation in economic growth, especially in the long-run. Therefore, we conclude that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid and tourism expansion would effectively stimulate long-term economic growth in Egypt. As a policy implication, Egypt should improve its economic growth performance by strategically improving the contribution of the tourism industry.